The Future Is Here, And It’s Now Being Evenly Distributed
The Oculus, New York City
If you work in tech you have probably heard this quote over the years:
“The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed.”
William Gibson - August 1993
Having lived in New York City for most of the past decade, I have often felt like New Yorkers live in the future compared to others around the country. Fast-casual salad restaurants, seamless, electric bike shares, uber, revel, spectacles, ramen burgers, cronuts, the void VR, capsule, etc, all existed in New York City (and to be fair other tier-1 cities) before making their way out into the smaller cities, then the suburbs, and finally the rural parts of America. Normally the process of “innovation sprawl” can take years.
In the very short amount of time we have all been in this global COVID-19 pandemic, technological innovation has been sprawling faster than ever. Everyone everywhere is being forced into the future. Using and adjusting to future technology to help cope in their own ways with the virus.
Learning for Pre-K through College has moved online, those younger students who didn’t have access to a computer at home, are now getting iPads. Education departments are also working to finally solve the issue of internet access for those students who lacked access to adequate internet (about 29% of households across NYC).
Traditionally online courses are seeing an increase as well. Two years ago I taught a course on Skillshare called Productivity Today. Normally January is the most-watched month of the year for all the courses on the platform, due to the increase in new year’s resolutions. But recently, with everyone working from home, March and April’s view times are beating the record high’s of January’s past.
While most young urban professionals (yuppies as the boomers call us) used to be the core customers of food delivery apps like Seamless, Grubhub, Uber Eats, etc. Now everyone, at every age, is using them. And every restaurant that wants to stay alive has been onboarded to deliver through them, greatly increasing the supply side of these marketplaces.
The same goes for grocery delivery apps like Instacart, Amazon Prime, and local grocery chains that have white-labeled their own solutions, such as Wegmans (which is actually powered by Instacart on the backend).
“This level of online shopping was, at best, forecast to occur five years from now,” says David Bishop, a partner at grocery research consultancy Brick Meets Click. “The demand has overwhelmed the capacity of the retailers.” In 2019, Bishop reports that 6.3% of grocery-related spending was through online orders, bringing in around $29 billion in U.S. orders alone. That’s a lot of green, but it’s a fraction of the $650 billion industry. “Shopping online costs more for the retailer, and was a low priority for grocery stores,” Bishop says. “They offered it as an add-on, not a core part of their business.”
Everything flipped this March. With shelter-in-place orders across the country, online groceries are now a hot commodity. About 40% of orders come from first-time shoppers, according to Gordon Hasket Research.
- Excerpt from The Real Reason It’s So Hard to Order Groceries Online Right Now
When I don’t order online and I do really need to get something from a physical retail location, I have been using contactless Apple Pay almost every time. In the times of social distancing, no cashier wants to touch a card or money I hand them and contactless payments have also flipped to become the norm.
You have probably downloaded Zoom recently, which has exploded massively in growth.
Along with FaceTime, Houseparty, and the up & coming Clubhouse which are bringing how we “hang out” with friends and family into the future.
Slack, which is enabling companies to communicate with their employee’s during remote working from home has also seen explosive growth. From Stewart Butterfield, CEO of Slack:
In lieu of expensive gym memberships, at-home workouts are taking off with Fitbod, Obe Fitness, and Peloton. And most fitness instructors are replacing their employer/gym by building a direct to consumer relationship, and teaching classes over Zoom or Instagram.
I’m not going to even touch on the changes happening in healthcare, because that could be its own post in and of itself.
We were headed toward a future at the end of 2019. A future that was likely inevitable but still 5-10 years away.
Now in 2020, this coronavirus is global and it’s accelerating the support for new technologies all around the entire world, all at once. The future is now being more evenly distributed than ever before. And when that happens, this fast, you not only arrive at the expected future sooner than later, but you pave a new foundation. Allowing the “next wave” of technology to build on top.
Tomorrowland
